Bitcoin direction model I built lost to "price stays the same"

Each range is centred on the current price. Its width comes from how much Bitcoin has moved over the last 15 minutes, hour, day and week, combined in the proportions that have predicted best over the past 90 days, and allows for busier and quieter times of day and for scheduled Fed decisions and US jobs reports. It's then calibrated on recent outcomes so the price finishes inside the 90% range about 9 times out of 10.

It doesn't predict direction. Over hours, Bitcoin's direction is close to random, and no model tried here beat assuming no change. Sudden jumps can land outside the range.

How it works in full, with the out-of-sample test →

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