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#评测#基础设施#Space#falcon 9#launch crisis#NASA

Analysts find looming launch crisis is "more severe" than anticipated

There's no evidence that Starship will launch traditional satellites, either.

Ars Technica Eric Berger 2026/10/30 · 今天2 分钟阅读

以下正文同步自 Ars Technica,版权归原站所有,已转换为易读排版。

A new report from the analytics firm Quilty Space confirms that, outside of China, the world faces a significant shortage of rockets over the next five years. The firm estimates that between now and 2030, there will be a shortfall of about 150 launches compared to demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies. If demand from the US military is added in—and SpaceX does not extend the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy program to accommodate increased national security needs—the shortage could be doubled. "What we wanted to get at is to understand how severe this launch crisis is and when will it be resolved," said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space. "What we learned is that the launch crisis is more severe than we thought and that it will not go away this decade for sure, and it might not abate until sometime late in the 2030s." Read full article Comments

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