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Full delivery of national climate pledges now points to 2.6°C of warming this century, about 0.1°C more than last year's estimate. The UN assessment links the deterioration to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of past emissions.

The world's climate pledges now point to a hotter future, according to a UN assessment that identifies the United States' retreat from the Paris Agreement as a reason.

The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026 puts warming this century at 2.6°C if countries fulfil their national climate commitments and continue similar efforts. That is about 0.1°C higher than last year's pledge-based estimate, according to AP's account of the assessment.

Under policies already in place, the projection remains 2.8°C, unchanged from last year. UNEP attributes the worsening pledge-based outlook to the US withdrawal and revised estimates of historical emissions, while saying newly submitted national climate plans have made a negligible difference.

Released on October 21 and titled The Point of Return, the assessment says the chance to avoid or sharply limit a temporary rise above 1.5°C has been lost. It still sets out a route back below that level by the end of the century, though one requiring steep emissions cuts and large-scale carbon removal.

"Overshoot is not surrender," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said. He said countries could still reduce the size and duration of the temperature rise and bring warming back below 1.5°C before the century ends.