Lula won: the same swing, in all twenty-seven states

The Superior Electoral Court has finished counting Brazil’s second round of 25 October 2026. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took 64,256,232 votes to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 59,826,041, which is 51.79 per cent to 48.21 and a margin of 4,430,191. All 499,248 polling sections are in.

Three weeks earlier Bolsonaro had led the first round 47.04 to 45.16 across the 27 states. What moved between the rounds was not regional: Lula improved on his own first-round share in every single state, and the whole spread of that improvement runs from 4.50 points in Rondônia to 9.28 in Goiás. The largest gains came where Bolsonaro had been strongest, which is what a runoff does once the field narrows to two.

For all that movement the map barely redrew itself. Minas Gerais was the only state where the leader changed, from Bolsonaro 48.2 to Lula 50.4, and Minas has now picked the national winner in every direct presidential election since 1989. Lula finished carrying 13 of the 27 states and a majority of the votes.

This site published a projection before the vote that had Bolsonaro on 52.26 per cent. He got 48.21. The piece says so, and says why.