Does Flapping Airplanes mean short timelines and hard treaty enforcement?

";inherits:false;initial-value:100%}@property --tw-inset-shadow{syntax:"";inherits:false;initial-value:0 0 #0000}@property --tw-inset-shadow-color{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-inset-shadow-alpha{syntax:"";inherits:false;initial-value:100%}@property --tw-ring-color{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-ring-shadow{syntax:"";inherits:false;initial-value:0 0 #0000}@property --tw-inset-ring-color{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-inset-ring-shadow{syntax:"";inherits:false;initial-value:0 0 #0000}@property --tw-ring-inset{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-ring-offset-width{syntax:"";inherits:false;initial-value:0}@property --tw-ring-offset-color{syntax:"";inherits:false;initial-value:#fff}@property --tw-ring-offset-shadow{syntax:"";inherits:false;initial-value:0 0 #0000}@property --tw-outline-style{syntax:"";inherits:false;initial-value:solid}@property --tw-blur{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-brightness{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-contrast{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-grayscale{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-hue-rotate{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-invert{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-opacity{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-saturate{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-sepia{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-drop-shadow{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-drop-shadow-color{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-drop-shadow-alpha{syntax:"";inherits:false;initial-value:100%}@property --tw-drop-shadow-size{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-backdrop-blur{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-backdrop-brightness{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-backdrop-contrast{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-backdrop-grayscale{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-backdrop-hue-rotate{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-backdrop-invert{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-backdrop-opacity{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-backdrop-saturate{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-backdrop-sepia{syntax:"";inherits:false}@property --tw-duration{syntax:"";inherits:false}I wrote this on August 31 when the raise was reported as a rumor. But I got no good answers then, so I'm reposting.

Flapping Airplanes, a neolab led by twentysomethings with a pitch of "we'll invent AI algorithms that are many OOMs more sample-efficient," raised at a valuation of $1.5B in January. They are now in talks to raise at $5B, from both the $1.5B-round lead (Index Ventures, a prominent generalist firm) and a well-regarded deeptech firm (Lux Capital). (COI note: the latter invested in my company.) (EDIT Oct 22: their pitch has drifted more toward "new primitives for GPUs" that enable "more $ per MW." So possibly efficient inference more than efficient training.)

A naive interpretation is: insiders have increased their estimation of FA's success (in creating vastly more sample-efficient AI) 3.3x. My best guess is that this would be justified (explicitly) by "they've hired more smart people" and "they claim technical progress," with perhaps a dash of "I would have invested earlier if they'd let me." Any technical progress is, from what Fable and I can find out, more or less secret. (Everything here is a mix of public info and reliable anonymous sources.)