Show HN: I checked 16,899 insider stock buys – most didn't beat the S&P 500

We measured 16,899 insider buying events since 2020, from SEC filings, and checked each stock against the S&P 500 over the next 90 days. When insiders buy today, we show how past setups like it turned out.

New: the Insider Gauge. How broad insider buying is across the whole market this week (69/100), and hidden facts we found in these buys. See the Gauge →

Strongest setup so far: 3+ insiders buying, no CEO or CFO, stock down 20%+ in 3 months. 138 of 278 cases beat the S&P 500 over 90 days (50%), with a median of -0.2% vs. the market.

Pick the traits of an insider buy and see how past cases like it did over 90 days.

past setups like this beat the S&P 500 over 90 days

Free. Plus a same-day alert when 3 or more insiders buy the same stock.

Share of past cases that beat the S&P 500 over 90 days. Bars to the right of the line did better than 50/50. Hover a row for details.

Tap a row to try it in the explorer above.

Share of that year's insider buys that beat the S&P 500 over the next 90 days. The market's mood matters as much as the insiders.

Stocks with insider buying in the last 30 days, and how past setups like each did.

Grouped by how many insiders bought, whether the CEO or CFO was one of them, and how the stock had moved in the 3 months before. Only groups with 25+ cases are shown.

Limits: this is history, not a prediction. Stocks under $3 are left out, and closed-end funds don't get odds. Companies that were later delisted often have no price data and drop out, which flatters the results somewhat. Returns are price only, before costs, taxes and dividends. Updated about once a month; last Oct 19, 2026.

Educational research from public SEC filings and market prices. Not investment advice.

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Ranked by how past purchases did vs. the S&P 500 over 90 days. How it works